Immigration crucial in baby-scarce Singapore: government
paper
SINGAPORE: Singapore needs to continue attracting
immigrants to slow down the decline and ageing of its citizen
population, according to a paper released by the National
Population and Talent Division.
By 2030, the number of elderly citizens will triple
to 900,000, representing about 30 per cent of the
population.
Compounding this is Singapore's low Total Fertility
Rate (TFR) of 1.2, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
In its latest report, the National Population and Talent Division
sets out five scenarios: one, if the TFR goes up to the replacement
rate of 2.1; two, if the TFR is at the current 1.2 and with no
immigration; and the rest, with the current fertility rate but with
an inflow of 15,000, 20,000 or 25,000 new citizens each year.
The scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but illustrations
of the growth and change in population that will occur if certain
assumptions about future demographics trends prevail over a
projected period.
Without immigration, the paper shows that citizen deaths will
exceed births in 13 years. By 2025, the population will also start
to age and shrink, with the median age being 45 - up from the
current 39 years.
The citizen workforce will also start to shrink, with fewer
working-age citizens supporting each elderly citizens.
Currently, there are 6.3 working-age citizens supporting each
elderly citizen.
By 2030, this ratio will drop to 2.1 is to 1.
With more exiting the workforce, economists say the burden of taxes
will fall on the smaller pool of working adult citizens.
Associate Professor Tan Khee Giap, co-director of Asia
Competitiveness Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public
Policy, said: "There is a trade-off here, that all Singapore
citizens...must accept that if they want to be helped, to be
subsidised when they are old...as less Singaporeans are now paying
tax in support of the ageing population...then you must grow the
economic cake. And if you want to grow the economic cake with less
Singaporeans, you must accept foreign workers."
The paper points out that immigration will help slow down the
decline in the pool of working-age citizens. With no immigration
and at the current fertility rate, this pool will hit about 1.3
million in 2060. With 20,000 or 25,000 new citizens each year, this
figure will be bumped up to about 2 million.
Immigration will also help to slow down the rate of ageing among
the population. With no immigration and at the current fertility
rate, the median age of citizens will be 47 in 2030. But if 20,000
or 25,000 citizenships are granted each year, the median age will
go down to about 44 years of age, the same year.
Taking in 20,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year will also bump up
the citizen old-age support ratio slightly from 2.1 to 2.4 working
citizens for every elderly citizen, in 2030.
Singapore has been granting between 18,000 and 20,000 citizenships
to foreigners over the past three to four years.
Analysts say that while new citizens need to be integrated, the
bigger issue is with permanent residents (PRs), which they say may
have more issues with assimilation.
Research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, Leong
Chan-Hoong, said that the data does not provide any information
regarding PRs.
He said: "The data does not provide any information regarding the
influx or projected intake of permanent residents. The number of
new citizens is actually quite small vis a vis the number of new
PRs. So the PRs actually take up a significant component of the new
migrants so it would be more helpful if we have information about
what kind of projection we are looking at."
Dr Leong, though, added that the paper would be helpful as a guide
for the national discourse on population policies.
"It's actually a very valuable platform for the ministry to engage
Singaporeans to think about what kind of future, what kind of
population landscape they want for Singapore.
"I think the other possible objective is also to make Singaporeans
think harder, that if we do not have immigration, then there might
be the possibility that Singaporeans will have to work longer and
you will have to pay more taxes in light of the rapidly ageing
population.
"So with all these different scenarios that the National Population
and Talent Division has rolled out, then Singaporeans would have a
more informed decision or platform to think about what sort of
issues that they are more likely to encounter in the years to
come."
The paper will form the basis of discussions among focus groups and
the public for a White Paper to be released by the National
Population and Talent Division by the end of the year.
The White Paper will set out issues important to Singaporeans and
strategies for a sustainable population. This will cover areas such
as housing, transport and land use. The public consultation for
this is expected to start in the middle of the year.
- CNA/cc/ir
